Why this VC thinks 2026 will be 'the year of the consumer'

Consumer tech startup funding has slumped since 2022, as macroeconomic volatility and persistent inflation have made venture capitalists hesitant about consumer spending power. Over the last few years, AI capital has largely targeted enterprise clients, drawn by substantial budgets, multi-year agreements, and faster scaling opportunities.  

Yet one venture capitalist anticipates a consumer sector resurgence in 2026. 

“This is going to be the year of the consumer,” Vanessa Larco, a partner at Premise and former NEA partner, stated on this week’s Equity podcast episode.

Larco notes that despite enterprises’ large budgets and urgent drive to adopt AI, progress often stalls because “they don’t know where to start.” 

“The advantage of consumer and prosumer markets…is that users already have a clear idea of how they want to use the technology,” Larco explained. “They buy it, and if it works, they keep using it.”

Essentially, adoption accelerates, allowing AI startups to verify product-market fit through actual usage rather than relying solely on signed contracts. 

“When selling to consumers, you quickly learn whether your product solves a real problem. You’ll immediately know if you need to pivot, adjust your offering, or abandon the project entirely,” Larco added. 

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Join the Disrupt 2026 Waitlist

Add yourself to the Disrupt 2026 waitlist to be first in line when Early Bird tickets drop. Past Disrupts have brought Google Cloud, Netflix, Microsoft, Box, Phia, a16z, ElevenLabs, Wayve, Hugging Face, Elad Gil, and Vinod Khosla to the stages — part of 250+ industry leaders driving 200+ sessions built to fuel your growth and sharpen your edge. Plus, meet the hundreds of startups innovating across every sector.

In today’s uncertain economy, consumer tech products that achieve scale demonstrate particularly robust product-market fit. 

Early signs suggest consumer tech is gaining momentum. Late last year, OpenAI introduced apps within ChatGPT, enabling users to shop via Target, browse housing listings on Zillow, book travel with Expedia, or create Spotify playlists—all through the ChatGPT interface. 

“AI will function like concierge services, handling tasks you have in mind,” Larco said. “The key question is determining which applications should be specialized versus general purpose.”

Alternatively, as OpenAI strives to make ChatGPT the new operating system for the consumer internet, the question arises: which legacy companies—such as Tripadvisor or WebMD—will survive independently, and which will be absorbed by OpenAI?

While Larco views 2026 as a “gangbuster” year for mergers and acquisitions, she is focused on investing in startups that “OpenAI won’t want to eliminate.”

“OpenAI doesn’t manage real-world assets,” she explained. “I don’t believe they’ll build an Airbnb competitor because they don’t want to manage properties…I don’t think they’ll create marketplaces requiring human interaction, as they prefer not to manage people.”

Beyond identifying startups that fill these gaps, Larco is monitoring the potential impact if OpenAI “decides to emulate Apple or Android by taking a 30% cut of all traffic they direct to you.”

“Would Airbnb agree to such terms?” she asked. 

Overall, Larco predicts that new monetization strategies and innovative business models will emerge from the evolving online consumer experience. 

“Social has to change”

While scrolling through Instagram during news about Trump’s capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, Larco noticed something. She had visited the platform for updates on the escalating crisis, but instead encountered an overwhelming flood of AI-generated content about Maduro. 

Although deepfakes have gradually become mainstream on social media, this was one of the first major news events where AI-generated noise obscured the truth. 

“At that point, I thought, if I’m just going to watch AI-generated videos and photos, I want them to be entertaining,” she said.

Larco reports being inundated with realistic AI videos on social media to the point where she assumes everything is AI-generated, and she is not alone. If users begin to doubt the authenticity of content on Meta’s platforms or TikTok, the question becomes: where can you find genuine content?

Larco suggests that platforms like Reddit and Digg might fill the void by verifying human content. However, for Meta, it may simply become an entertainment company, serving as a platform for user-generated short films.

“I think we should stop getting news from [Meta],” Larco stated. “You’re just seeing funny videos there. It’s not social media; it’s gaming and entertainment media.”

“Some things are better with voice than a screen“

When Meta acquired AI agent startup Manus last week, many interpreted it as an enterprise-focused move. Larco believes it could be a strategic step to enhance Meta’s Ray-Ban smart glasses, a product she highly favors for allowing her to answer calls, reply to messages, capture photos and videos, and ask Meta AI questions—all without needing to pull out her phone or navigate a screen. 

Larco believes that truly useful voice AI assistants are finally “on the verge of becoming reality,” driven by advanced technology and increased computing power. 

“Some tasks are better suited for voice than a screen,” she said. “Because voice technology was previously poor, we relied on screens as a crutch. But I’d love to start distinguishing which tasks are truly better on a screen and which are better handled via audio.”

Getting answers to questions her kids ask about the tallest building? Definitely voice. Taking out her phone to type the question now feels “archaic,” Larco noted. 

“I think it will be exciting for designers, as they finally get to choose the best form factor for each use case,” she said.