New data shows engineering jobs are the most resilient despite AI predictions

The question of whether AI is already replacing jobs remains fiercely debated.

In May, tech layoffs hit their highest single-month total in years, with AI cited as the most common reason, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

In theory, software engineering is the profession most vulnerable to automation, given the rapid adoption of AI-powered coding tools. However, researchers at venture firm SignalFire argue that hiring data tells a different story.

"The reasoning behind many layoffs consistently points to AI, specifically in relation to coding; they claim one engineer can now do the work of several in the past," said Asher Bantock, SignalFire's head of research. "But what we observe on the ground is somewhat inconsistent with that narrative."

SignalFire's analysis, tracking the careers of millions of employees across over 80 million companies, suggests that engineering was the most resilient job function in 2025. Rather than focusing on layoffs—which are hard to monitor since people often delay updating their employment status after job cuts—SignalFire used hiring data as a more reliable gauge of current workforce trends.

According to SignalFire's latest "State of Talent Report," total hiring at large tech companies fell 25% compared to 2019 levels, while engineering roles experienced a much smaller decline of only 11%.

In fact, engineers made up 55% of all new hires in 2025 across the 12 companies SignalFire classifies as "Tech Majors"—Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Tesla, Uber, Airbnb, Block, and Stripe. That's a notable increase from 2019, when engineers accounted for just 46% of new recruits, the report states.

The persistent demand for engineers was even clearer at early-stage startups, which collectively hired 7% more engineers in 2025 compared to 2019, according to SignalFire's data.

If AI were genuinely replacing engineering talent, Bantock argued, engineering hiring would be the first to decline during the current tech hiring slowdown. Instead, SignalFire's data reveals that engineering headcount is growing faster than most other tech job functions.

Although Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned last year that AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and drive unemployment up to 20% within five years, the company's head of economics, Peter McCrory, told TechCrunch in March that he had not observed any significant AI-driven impact on the workforce yet.

McCrory stated at the time: "There's at least no larger material difference in unemployment rates" between workers who use Claude for the "most central task of their job in automated ways"—such as technical writers, data entry clerks, and software engineers—and those in jobs less exposed to AI that require "physical interaction and dexterity with the real world."

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang went even further, outright rejecting the idea that AI will replace engineers. "Somebody said that AI is going to destroy all the software engineering jobs," Huang said during an interview at Stanford Graduate School of Business in April. He then argued the opposite. Now that all engineers at Nvidia are using agentic AI, "software engineers are busier than ever," he said.

Huang added that while AI agents write code almost instantly, they continually challenge engineers to come up with "the next idea."

For now, at least, it seems that with AI, engineering has become a classic example of the Jevons paradox—the idea that greater efficiency doesn't reduce demand for a resource; it increases it, because the work expands to fill the new capacity. As Bantock said of engineering talent at this moment: "They're suddenly a lot more productive, and there's endless work for them to do."