IBM CEO: AI Won't Replace Programmers Soon

# SXSW # IBM

IBM CEO Arvind Krishna remains optimistic about global trade, despite the Trump administration's criticisms of globalism. He believes that the key to U.S. growth lies in embracing international trade, citing historical economic studies that suggest a 10% increase in global trade could boost local GDP by 1%. Speaking at SXSW, Krishna emphasized the importance of global trade for local economic growth. He also highlighted the necessity of attracting international talent to the U.S., arguing against the administration's push for stricter visa policies. Krishna believes that the U.S. should serve as an international talent hub, fostering an environment where global expertise can enhance local skills. In a broader discussion, Krishna touched on the role of AI in the tech industry. He challenged a prediction by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei that AI might write 90% of code within the next few months, suggesting a more modest figure of 20-30%. Krishna sees AI as a tool that will increase programmer productivity rather than eliminate jobs, drawing parallels with historical technological advancements like calculators and Photoshop. IBM, which offers AI-powered products, has a vested interest in portraying AI as beneficial. Krishna's views on AI have evolved; he previously mentioned pausing hiring in areas where AI could take over, but now sees AI as a positive force that enhances quality across the board. Krishna also discussed the future of AI, predicting that it will become more cost-effective and energy-efficient, citing examples like the Chinese AI startup DeepSeek. However, he doubts AI's ability to generate new knowledge, contrasting his views with those of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who believes in the potential for "superintelligent" AI to drive innovation. Instead, Krishna sees quantum computing, a field in which IBM is heavily invested, as the technology that will truly advance scientific discovery. He argues that while AI can learn from existing knowledge, it won't reach the level of artificial general intelligence needed to surpass the insights of historical geniuses like Einstein or Oppenheimer.

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