Deloitte: AI Risks Temper Productivity Optimism

Deloitte's latest UK CFO Survey reveals a brighter outlook for major UK businesses, with technology investment—especially in artificial intelligence—becoming a dominant strategic focus. The survey indicates that while macroeconomic and geopolitical risks remain high, corporate boards are increasingly aligning on digital capability as a key driver of productivity and medium-term growth.

The most striking finding relates to technology spending. A decisive 96% of CFOs expect UK firms to boost their technology investment over the next five years, with 77% anticipating gains in productivity and business performance. These figures are notable for a CFO-focused report, signaling that digital expenditure is no longer seen as optional or cyclical but is treated as a structural investment, similar to capital spending in past industrial eras. For IT leaders, this suggests sustained funding is accessible, but it also highlights increased expectations for delivery, integration, and measurable returns from technology initiatives.

Artificial intelligence is central to both the report and overall CFO sentiment. The proportion of CFOs growing 'more optimistic' about AI's potential to enhance organizational performance has climbed to 59%, up from 39% in the third quarter of 2024. This shift is not marginal; it suggests AI has moved from experimentation into the realm of mainstream financial confidence. Importantly, the survey does not show a corresponding surge in overall risk-taking. Risk appetite, while improving, remains muted at 15%, below the long-term average of 25%. This combination—confidence in AI paired with ongoing financial caution—has implications for how AI projects will likely be governed. Finance functions are expected to favor tightly defined use cases and clear productivity metrics over open-ended trials.

For finance professionals, the findings reinforce the CFO's role as an active steward of technology, not just a passive budget holder. The survey positions finance leaders as key shapers of digital strategy, particularly regarding AI. The emphasis on productivity gains points to a preference for applications that automate processes and aid financial forecasting, not just customer-facing innovation. IT teams should anticipate more rigorous scrutiny of business cases, deeper involvement from finance colleagues, and a greater need to translate technical capabilities into clear financial outcomes.

Despite improving sentiment, the survey also underscores persistent constraints. Overall business confidence, while improved from previous lows, remains negative at a net -13%, below its long-term average. Capital expenditure is a priority, but only 17% of CFOs rate it as a 'strong priority'—barely above the long-term average. This implies that while investment is protected, it is not guaranteed: programs perceived as speculative, poorly governed, or misaligned with productivity goals remain vulnerable.

External uncertainty, though decreasing, is still significant. 38% of CFOs still rate their future uncertainty as 'high' or 'very high,' and geopolitics continues to dominate the risk landscape, cited by 65% of respondents. UK competitiveness and productivity follow closely, with a historically high risk rating of 62%. Systems resilience, data security, energy efficiency, and supply-chain visibility are also likely to demand attention, alongside the broader efficiency goals enabled by AI.

A key undercurrent in the survey is the human aspect of technology adoption. Deloitte's analysis recognizes that AI's value depends on blending technology with human skills and the need for workforce upskilling. While not quantified in the data, this aligns with the broader theme of cautious optimism: CFOs are willing to invest but do not assume technology alone will deliver results. This strengthens the argument for IT leadership to embed change management, training, governance, and oversight into new digital programs from the outset.

The Deloitte CFO Survey points to a pragmatic, decisive shift toward technology-led productivity in UK business. The evidence is strongest around sustained digital investment and the marked rise in confidence regarding AI. Continued caution on risk and recognition of a challenging external environment persist. For finance professionals, the priority is allocating capital to initiatives that can demonstrably improve performance. For IT staff, opportunities are expanding, but so is accountability. Digital ambition will likely be funded, but only where it can be translated into credible, auditable business value.

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