HomeAnthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX dwarf the last 25 years of tech exits
We've previously discussed the intense IPO season, but with SpaceX now publicly traded and Anthropic—and possibly OpenAI—soon to follow, it's easy to overlook the immense scale of these developments.
A clear reminder came from Wednesday's NCVA-Pitchbook Venture Monitor report. Unsurprisingly, private market capital is overwhelmingly flowing into AI—but one statistic was particularly striking. Assessing the upcoming OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs, the report highlights: "Together with SpaceX's IPO, these exits will create more value than all U.S. venture-backed exits since 2000."
That's a bold statement, but the numbers make it hard to argue. SpaceX has already gone public with a $1.77 trillion valuation, and with both Anthropic and OpenAI approaching trillion-dollar valuations, the combined total could exceed $4 trillion. In contrast, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reported only $70 billion in U.S.-based IPO proceeds last year.
Attentive readers will spot several caveats. The comparison excludes non-U.S. companies like Alibaba, and it measures "value created" rather than strictly liquid cash. Many major tech milestones—such as the iPhone, Android's debut, and the launches of YouTube and Instagram—occurred at companies already public, so they wouldn't appear in IPO figures.
Still, those 25 years were remarkably eventful. They included IPOs from Google (2004), Tesla (2010), and Meta (2012)—now among the world's most valuable companies. During the same period, LinkedIn, Slack, and WhatsApp were each acquired for over $20 billion. Uber's $84 billion IPO seemed enormous in 2019, yet it's less than 5% of what SpaceX just raised.
One contributing factor is that companies are staying private longer. A modern-day Google would likely delay its IPO and go public at a higher valuation. Another factor is the capital-intensive nature of AI training, which has driven labs to raise massive funds and inflated valuations. Yet the sheer scale of these public offerings still far exceeds anything the industry has seen, and is already straining financial infrastructure.
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We've previously discussed the intense IPO season, but with SpaceX now publicly traded and Anthropic—and possibly OpenAI—soon to follow, it's easy to overlook the immense scale of these developments.
A clear reminder came from Wednesday's NCVA-Pitchbook Venture Monitor report. Unsurprisingly, private market capital is overwhelmingly flowing into AI—but one statistic was particularly striking. Assessing the upcoming OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs, the report highlights: "Together with SpaceX's IPO, these exits will create more value than all U.S. venture-backed exits since 2000."
That's a bold statement, but the numbers make it hard to argue. SpaceX has already gone public with a $1.77 trillion valuation, and with both Anthropic and OpenAI approaching trillion-dollar valuations, the combined total could exceed $4 trillion. In contrast, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reported only $70 billion in U.S.-based IPO proceeds last year.
Attentive readers will spot several caveats. The comparison excludes non-U.S. companies like Alibaba, and it measures "value created" rather than strictly liquid cash. Many major tech milestones—such as the iPhone, Android's debut, and the launches of YouTube and Instagram—occurred at companies already public, so they wouldn't appear in IPO figures.
Still, those 25 years were remarkably eventful. They included IPOs from Google (2004), Tesla (2010), and Meta (2012)—now among the world's most valuable companies. During the same period, LinkedIn, Slack, and WhatsApp were each acquired for over $20 billion. Uber's $84 billion IPO seemed enormous in 2019, yet it's less than 5% of what SpaceX just raised.
One contributing factor is that companies are staying private longer. A modern-day Google would likely delay its IPO and go public at a higher valuation. Another factor is the capital-intensive nature of AI training, which has driven labs to raise massive funds and inflated valuations. Yet the sheer scale of these public offerings still far exceeds anything the industry has seen, and is already straining financial infrastructure.
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